Of Droughts and Flooding Rains

Models, models everywhere. Climate researchers are still bogged down, looking for truth in the condensates of their own imaginations.


So they continue to publish papers like Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates. An incomprehensible title to those not in the inner circle or familiar with the abstract jargon.  But such things are written to convince, not to enlighten.

We clearly ought to prepare for excessive scaling rates!

The abstract says (in part)

Models and physical reasoning predict that extreme precipitation will increase in a warmer climate due to increased atmospheric humidity. … Here we analyse daily extreme precipitation events in several Australian cities to show that temporary local cooling associated with extreme events and associated synoptic conditions reduces these apparent scaling rates, especially in warmer climatic conditions. A regional climate projection ensemble for Australia … Projections from the same model show future daily extremes increasing at rates faster than those inferred from observed scaling.… These conclusions are likely to generalize to other regions.

I’ve reduced it down to help focus on the fact that the paper is just climate model porn. Lots of climate models, adorned with appropriately “tuned” fudge-factors are thrown into the pit and left to embellish predestined conclusions defined by their creators.

Researchers “discover” that the models produce results akin to those in the carefully selected and cooked statistics. Results not directly or independently measurable in a physical world.

The final statement in the abstract seems to be completely without supporting evidence or an indication of what “likely” actually means.

Only in the bubble of climate science is a computer model run considered to be an “experiment”. Elsewhere that’s just an expression of a figment of imagination.

Back in the real world where people used to spend much of their lives outdoors, buildings had real windows; but lacked airconditioning and digital procrastinator enhancements; Dorothea Mackellar wrote:

I love a sunburnt country,
A land of sweeping plains,
Of ragged mountain ranges,
Of droughts and flooding rains.

Core of my heart, my country!
Her pitiless blue sky,
When sick at heart, around us,
We see the cattle die –
But then the grey clouds gather,
And we can bless again
The drumming of an army,
The steady, soaking rain.

Core of my heart, my country!
Land of the Rainbow Gold,
For flood and fire and famine,
She pays us back threefold –
Over the thirsty paddocks,
Watch, after many days,
The filmy veil of greenness
That thickens as we gaze.

Don’t they teach this to Aussie kids any more?

More discussions at Joanne Nova and WUWT.

This entry was posted in Environment, It's only a Model, Science and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to Of Droughts and Flooding Rains

  1. Mjw says:

    If the BOM was around then Dorothea Mackellar would have found herself excoriated as a sceptic.

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