IPCC’s 95% Certainty

Physicist Luboš Motl pulled apart the IPCC’s 95% “certainty” that the global warming is mostly man-made.

  • First of all, the figure 95% isn’t really calculated in any way. It’s literally pulled out of the air. The gullible audience of the IPCC is supposed to believe that the IPCC members are shamans with supernatural skills and if they vote about and approve a figure they randomly invent, it’s a deep and accurate truth one should worship. But there are no shamans in the real world and most of the IPCC members not only fail to be shamans but they also fail to be competent scientists.
  • Even if the figure 95% were credible, it’s just painfully low. I will discuss some analogies in high-energy physics (HEP) below.
  • Even if the figure 95% were credible, calculated, and replaced by a much higher figure, the statement we have “learned” is completely unspectacular, pretty much inconsequential, and unworthy of spending another dollar. Yet, some people seem to think that this unspectacular statement directly implies that we should throw hundreds of billions of dollars out of the window.

So there: It’s all made up out of thin air and the “certainty” is not enough in a statistical sense to justify action. As Luboš writes on the “statistics”:

A more precise accumulation of the “feeling” is obtained if many people smoke together – this is called the “consensus science”.

You can read the full dissection at Luboš’ blog: The Reference Frame


Update 2013-08-22

Elsewhere, Steven Goddard says I’m 100% Sure That The IPCC Is Lying

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One Response to IPCC’s 95% Certainty

  1. AAB says:

    “Physicist Luboš Motl pulled apart the IPCC’s 95% “certainty” that the global warming is mostly man-made.”

    About a decade ago the ‘scientists’ guaranteed that sea levels would rise massively and the UK would experience warm winters and mild summers. Neither has happened. I suppose if anything it shows that there is a 95% certainty that environmentalist-scientists will lie year after year.

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